Next week the MacroTourist is headed off on vacation with the family. There will be no updates until March 24th.
I am still deciding what to do with many of my positions, but I will most likely be dramatically reducing my risk so that I can have a “relatively” stress free vacation.
I have been lucky enough to have had a decent little run of late, so I don’t want to give back too much while I am not paying attention.
Therefore this morning, I am going to cover all of my Nasdaq and Eurostoxx equity shorts. I will also reduce risk in most of my other trades.
There are a lot of worries about Putin’s intentions in Ukraine which is weighing heavily on the market. Although anything can happen, continuing to bet on this crisis escalating from here is probably not the right bet. I wouldn’t want to be long, but given that I am good and short, it is time to bring some in.
And since I won’t be writing next week, I would just like to take this opportunity to wish everyone a Happy St. Patrick’s day in advance. Last year the MacroTourist took a month off travelling in the UK with the family. We tacked on a week in Ireland just because we felt that we really “should” visit Ireland while we were there. Too many people had warned us that it would be a waste of a week, but it proved to be the highlight of our trip. I have never met such a warm caring pleasant bunch of people. Everywhere we went people were so kind and enjoyable. Although it did indeed rain much too much, the Irish will forever have a special place in my heart. Happy St. Patrick’s day!
The Macrotourist is headed off on vacation for a week and will be dramatically reducing risk. The portfolio will be changed when I return on March 24th.
UPDATE: COVERING Short Nasdaq 100 futures and short Eurostoxx futures Fed is going to taper until something breaks. Conviction 3. No stops for now
Update: Short European stocks via ESTX50 index vs Long S&P 500. Covering half of this trade into the recent dip. I continue to believe that the ECB is too tight relative to the Fed and the BoJ, and that this will translate into relative weakness of European equities. Conviction 2
Short CAD. Will add through 1.12. Stop 1.09. Conviction 2
Buy TIPS short TLT spread through long dated options. Conviction 3
Short 10 Year US Treasury Futures with half of position married to out of the money calls Conviction 6
Short US 5 Year Treasury Futures. I expect the Fed to continue to withdraw stimulus aggressively. Conviction 3
Short US 2 Year Treasury Futures. I think the downside is a move from 31 bps to 25 while the upside is a move up to 50 bps. Conviction 4
Short Mar and June 2016 Eurodollar vs long equivalent BAX futures. Conviction 3
Long March 2014 VIX Futures. Conviction 2.
Long a tiny position of puts on TSLA and FB. Just for shits and giggles. Conviction 1. Stop – none: when they go to zero the market will do it for me.
Short Yen. Conviction 3
Short JGB futures. I can’t call myself a macro trader without this widow maker on the sheets. Small position for now, but will add aggressively at the first sign it is working. Conviction level: 1. No stop.
Long Yen volatility. I believe we are entering a period of increased volatility for the FX pair. Conviction: 3
Long 30 year US treasury volatility. Swapping half of this position into Yen volatility. Conviction 2
Long various deferred crude oil futures contracts. I own a variety of different expiries in years from December 2014 all the way to December 2020. Conviction level: 4. No hard stop.
Long precious metals smorgasbord. Long gold, silver and platinum futures. I also believe that the closed end ETFs (CEF.A CN Equity or PHYS US Equity) which are now trading at discounts versus years of trading at a premium are a good way to play this idea. Conviction level: 4. Using the year end lows as a stop for half the position.
Long grains. Long deferred corn, wheat and soybean futures. Conviction level:5. No stop period.
Long Ithaca Energy IAE CN Equity. See previous posts. Conviction level: 5
Long Input Capital INP CN Equity. I have not yet written this up, but I really like this story. More to come in coming days. Conviction level: 5